Conditions On The Ground
By
Randy Ludacer
After listening to the latest debate on when we might withdraw forces from Iraq it is clear that the latest operative euphemism for determining when to leave is the "conditions on the ground" as viewed by the commanders on the ground. General Petreaus, after crowing on all of the successes resulting from the surge, cautioned that all of these results are "fragile" and could be reversed quickly. So much for finality and victory.
x
The political side of the problem, the one the Iraqis themselves were going to solve with the benefit of the additional time provided by the surge, seems equally elusive and beyond reach.
The political side of the problem, the one the Iraqis themselves were going to solve with the benefit of the additional time provided by the surge, seems equally elusive and beyond reach.
x
Suspecting a red herring, or school of them, I looked elsewhere, eager to determine what issues concerned the Iraqis and what progress toward resolution had been made. Iraqi's former Prime Minister Allawi was appearing at a session of the Carnegie Endowment to speak on the surge, a golden opportunity. After listening to his rambling circumlocutionary diatribe, during which he tipped his hat to all the issues but suggested nothing concerning their resolution, I decided never to play poker with these guys, they don't have any "tells." Coming from a bazaari culture, this is somewhat understandable, since if you never take any position, you can never be accused of making a mistake and consequently cannot be held accountable if anything goes wrong.
Suspecting a red herring, or school of them, I looked elsewhere, eager to determine what issues concerned the Iraqis and what progress toward resolution had been made. Iraqi's former Prime Minister Allawi was appearing at a session of the Carnegie Endowment to speak on the surge, a golden opportunity. After listening to his rambling circumlocutionary diatribe, during which he tipped his hat to all the issues but suggested nothing concerning their resolution, I decided never to play poker with these guys, they don't have any "tells." Coming from a bazaari culture, this is somewhat understandable, since if you never take any position, you can never be accused of making a mistake and consequently cannot be held accountable if anything goes wrong.
x
I tried to narrow my concerns to what in the Iraqi mind would constitute political success to the point where the standing by of the United States Army was no longer required. Stability appears to be the next buzz word. Did that mean the complete settling of old scores and the guarantee that those presently in control of the government, would continue as the control group? Given the volatile nature of politics in general, of Arabian politics in particular and the fact that some major fractional differences still exist and will continue to exist in Iraq's body politics, the prospect for continued disagreement seems all but assured.
I tried to narrow my concerns to what in the Iraqi mind would constitute political success to the point where the standing by of the United States Army was no longer required. Stability appears to be the next buzz word. Did that mean the complete settling of old scores and the guarantee that those presently in control of the government, would continue as the control group? Given the volatile nature of politics in general, of Arabian politics in particular and the fact that some major fractional differences still exist and will continue to exist in Iraq's body politics, the prospect for continued disagreement seems all but assured.
x
Are we looking for an end to a chicken and egg argument when all disagreement is resolved and all dissent quashed ? Does conditions on the ground mean we stay at the ready until Iraq is as quiescent as Switzerland ?
x
Nothing happens in that part of the world without deadlines, and since all parties are in general agreement that 16 months seems reasonable, lets end the debate !
x
